Content warning: This article discusses suicide and its causes. 

On Thursday, April 30, I will display a poster about my research on the correlation between population density and suicide rates in the United States. Those of you that have been following my contributions to The Justice know that this type of project is exactly aligned with my pieces on loneliness. The question as to whether or not these two factors are somehow related has been researched since the 1940s on multiple scales, from smaller areas within the United States to the whole country. The United States isn’t the only country where this phenomenon was researched, and despite all these studies, the suicide rate in the United States is still rising. I wasn’t able to find studies that used the most recent data or any that showed how the relationship between these factors changed over time. So, I decided to test exactly that.

I pulled data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention on suicide rates and from the census on the population density of states. Both datasets are publicly available and can be found online. The CDC had available data on every year from 2014 to 2023, while the census had data on every decade from 1900 on. So, I investigated the correlations within the CDC’s range. I compared the density of 2010 and the rates of 2014 to the density of 2020 and the rates of 2023. I found population density to be negatively correlated with suicide rates in both scales, meaning there’s a higher risk of suicide in low-density states. Though states with larger populations have more cases of suicide, this rate is offset by the population size. Such a finding doesn’t occur in a vacuum but is rather the summary of months of research on this issue.

There are several complex factors that may explain why low population density incurs risk. According to a 2021 article published by the National Library of Medicine, there is more firearm ownership in low-density states than in high-density states. Additionally, rural areas have fewer opportunities for socializing and less access to Medicare. Such factors make it difficult for individuals to seek help from others when there are fewer people around and also makes it less likely that a bystander can help stop or call for help should they encounter someone in danger.

According to a 2021 study published in the International Journal of Mental Health, there are fewer job opportunities offered in low-density areas. Although I’ve often heard it’s not good to tie your sense of self-worth to your job, or generally anything material, it is easier said than done. It would be inhumane to deny the natural pride someone feels from witnessing their actions having an effect on the world, even more so when those actions are rewarded with a paycheck. A rewarding job adds immense value and joy to one’s life personally.

Another important factor of suicide rates is gender. The vast majority of suicides are committed by men who are less likely to seek help. According to the Pew Research Center, men are also more likely to own firearms and on average have fewer friendships than women. Given these statistics, all the risk factors that I previously mentioned are particularly prevalent in men. Men and boys’ typically perform worse in school compared to women, which harms their chances of sociability and employment. These rates have gotten worse over time according to the CDC. The origins of these differences are up to debate — whether they are social or biological doesn’t take away from the fact that they exist, and care providers need to work to heal people now. That is why many researchers suggest that suicide prevention efforts take on a more gendered lens when interacting with patients. In fact, several studies have found that men and women generally heal better when using different types of therapy. It was found that women benefit more from emotionally supportive and group therapy techniques, while men benefit more from interpretive, action-based and problem-solving therapy techniques. 

Finally, the more recent scale on the correlation between suicide and population density had a stronger negative correlation than the past scale. For those that took statistics, the older scale had a correlation of r = -0.69 and the more recent scale had a correlation of r = -0.74. For those that did not take statistics, the r variable measures the strength of a correlation, with -1 or 1 indicating strongest possible correlation. The closer r is to either 1 or -1, the stronger it is. The rise in the r variable when comparing population density and suicide indicates that low population density is even more likely to be correlated with a higher suicide rate than it has in previous decades. This could mean that over the past few years the factors that were contributing to the rising suicide rate in the United States seem to be getting more severe. It may be time for suicide prevention research to radically shift its focus, if such research is capable of solving the problem in the first place.