This Sunday, March 15, is the biggest night for movies. The 98th Academy Awards, hosted once again by the brilliantly funny Conan O'Brien, are being televised and the competition this year is fierce. 2025 was an amazing year for films, with leaps forward in visual effects, records broken for marginalized communities and overall great stories. Watching many of the nominees across several categories, I have come up with my definitive list of Oscar predictions for 2026, so please enjoy Luke’s —and therefore The Justice’s —official 2026 Academy Awards predictions.

Note: I am skipping categories, such as Casting, Documentary Feature/Short film, Live Action Short, Visual Effects and others, either because I didn’t have the chance to watch enough films in a category to feel adequately informed or because they are challenging to judge. These predictions were all written before the awards took place on March 15.

Biggest Take: “Sinners” is not winning many awards

Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” was a box office smash when it was released nearly a year ago — and clearly the Academy noticed. With a record-shattering 16 nominations, “Sinners” is the most nominated film of all time. But as wonderful as “Sinners” is, I will be surprised if it walks away with more than four awards. The competition this year is intense, which is great for moviegoers and less so for a film like “Sinners,” a very good movie against other very good movies. 

Best Actor in a Leading Role — Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”

Having seen four out of the five films with a Best Actor Nomination — apologies to “Blue Moon” — I think that DiCaprio has a very solid shot at winning the Academy Award this year. “One Battle” is his strongest performance since “The Revenant,” his previous Oscar win. DiCaprio sheds his rich-man typecasting from many of his previous films, instead playing a stoned ex-revolutionary who is barely holding his life together and can barely remember what he last said. He stumbles around scenes mumbling like a madman, fueled by alcohol and the need to save his daughter. Along with being such a different role for DiCaprio, Pat Calhoun is a layered character filled with trauma, pain and paranoia who also loves his daughter and would do anything to keep her safe.

The other two names being tossed out as highly likely are, of course, Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan. As strong as their performances were, I predict that the chaotic energy that DiCaprio brought to Calhoun will be more noticeable to the Academy, leading to him eking out the win.

Best Actress in a Leading Role — Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

There is no competition in this category. Jessie Buckley has been sweeping every awards show after her performance as Agnes in “Hamnet.” Buckley’s acting in “Hamnet” is nothing short of visceral, with intense emotional waves throughout the film. Agnes’s screams of agony, stony silences and tentative curiosity come together in a tear-jerking performance. Every moment that Buckley is on screen is intensely captivating and her chemistry with the other actors is fantastic. No performance brought me on as intense of an emotional rollercoaster as Buckley’s did and I hope that the Academy recognizes what a powerful performance she brought to the screen.

Best Actor and Best Actress in a Supporting Role — Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another,” Amy Madigan, “Weapons”*

The supporting actor and actress categories are much more challenging for me to predict. All of the nominees gave performances that enhanced both the film and their fellow actors, supporting their cast. Sean Penn’s Colonel Lockjaw is a clear standout for the Best Supporting Actor category. Lockjaw is almost cartoonishly evil and the intense threat he poses to the protagonists elevates the plot of “One Battle.” I would love to see Benicio Del Toro get the win as well, but his character in “One Battle,” while funny, did not particularly extend his acting abilities past being some fun comedic relief in the dark comedy. 

As for Best Supporting Actress, while I haven’t seen “Weapons,” Amy Madigan’s performance has been making the rounds at many awards shows, which makes me think she has a good chance at winning the Oscar. Of the films I have seen, however, Elle Fanning’s performance in “Sentimental Value” drives the film. Fanning plays an actress named Rachel Kemp, who finds herself playing a role intended for someone else. Kemp spends the film trying to grasp her character, asking as many questions as she can about the part. Fanning gives a great monologue while rehearsing for a scene she is about to film, showing how quickly she can go from happy and relaxed to deeply serious. FKemp’s final realization that only Skarsgård’s daughter can play the part is displayed very well by Fanning in her final conversation with the daughter in a theater, as Fanning exudes a quiet confidence in her decision to drop the role while also feeling sad that she could not give the performance she felt it deserved. Overall, both Madigan and Fanning would be great choices for Best Supporting Actress.

Animated Feature/Short Film — “K-Pop Demon Hunters” and “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”:

“K-Pop Demon Hunters” took over the world this past summer and with its expressive animation, catchy songs, massive popularity and strong story, it seems unlikely that any film could dethrone this behemoth of an animated film. Unfortunately, I did not get the chance to see “Arco” or “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain,” which I have heard very good things about. Even without seeing them, however, I will be surprised if either of them overtakes “K-Pop Demon Hunters.” 

I had the chance to watch all of the animated short films. Although I have my fingers crossed for “Butterfly,” a French short film that looks like it is made of acrylic paint, I think that “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” an incredible stop-motion short, is likely to win. “The Girl” has a great narrator, an interesting story and some of the smoothest stop motion I have ever seen. Any of the shorts in this category has a fair chance, however!

Cinematography — “Train Dreams”

This prediction is a real shot in the dark, but the cinematography in “Train Dreams” is stunning. The opening shot, with a tree falling in the woods, immediately made me think that “Train Dreams” would be a strong contender for Best Cinematography. If “The Secret Agent” had been nominated for this category, the decision may have been tougher. “One Battle After Another” does feature an incredible car chase sequence, however, so this might be another feather in Paul Thomas Anderson’s ever-growing cap of awards. “F1” also should have had a chance to win this award, with the innovative camera technology used for capturing the cars on the tracks, although it wasn’t nominated.

Production Design, Costume Design and Hair and Makeup — “Frankenstein”

While I found the story structure of “Frankenstein” to be abysmal, there is no denying that the production design, makeup and costumes are intricate. The amount of practical effects that Del Toro used should hopefully make “Frankenstein” the obvious choice for these awards. Other contenders are “Sinners” for both awards, or “The Smashing Machine” for makeup and hairstyling, for the crazy makeup done on The Rock.

Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”

The composition and editing of “One Battle” is one of the strongest in the lineup this awards season, with amazing usage of cross-cuts and flashbacks to tell the story. “Marty Supreme” also has a good shot at this award, in my eyes.

International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”

It’s a hard pick between “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” but considering both were nominated for Best Picture, it is reasonable to assume one of them will win Best International. I’m guessing “Sentimental Value” will win because it had a very touching narrative and the story was more accessible to global (especially American) audiences. “Sentimental Value” relies less on the knowledge of historical events specific to its nation, unlike “The Secret Agent,” which focuses on the political turmoil of Brazil in the 70s without much explanation about why the fighting is occurring.  The acting is phenomenal and there are plenty of great cinematic moments that push it just above “The Secret Agent” in my predictions.

Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song) — “Sinners,” “K-Pop Demon Hunters” (“Golden”)

I went back and forth between “Sinners” and “Bugonia” for the original score, but I think that “Sinners” has claimed that award. As unique and powerful as the soundtrack of “Bugonia” is, the storyline of “Sinners” is built around its music, and the soundtrack has phenomenal energy that drives the film exceptionally well.

As for best original song, even without seeing all the films with a nominated song, it seems like a fair prediction that the song that swept the globe and was at #1 on the top charts for weeks will likely win the Oscar for best original song. Once it wins, K-Pop Demon Hunters will have successfully made K-pop extra mainstream.

Sound Design — “F1”

The sound design of “F1” is one of the film’s strongest aspects. The sounds of the cars immerse the audience into the world of racing, and every sound is extremely clear and precise. “F1” was the only film that I could not stop thinking about the incredible sound design while watching, which makes me think it is likely to snag the Oscar for sound.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay), Writing (Original Screenplay) — “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners”

At last, a section where the fierce rivalry between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” can be set aside. “One Battle After Another” was an amazing script. Unfortunately, I can’t say how well it adapted from the original piece “Vineland”,  a novel written by Thomas Pynchon, but a critical aspect of adapting a story is taking advantage of whatever new medium the original story is being adapted to. “One Battle” absolutely took advantage of the magic of filmmaking to curate an excellent story.

“Sinners” was an interesting script, with layered characters and lore that create an interesting world. It is creatively executed and is a very unique, original story. Its dialogue feels natural, which develops the characters very effectively without feeling too expository.

Directing and Best Picture — “One Battle After Another,” Dir. Paul Thomas Anderson

Read my reviews for all 10 nominees on The Justice website!

My prediction for the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture is Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” The film is an excellent combination of Hollywood action sequences,  complex characters that the audience cares about and roots for, fantastic dialogue, gorgeous cinematography, great music and excellent acting. “One Battle” treads the line of commentary about modern culture while also showing how little impact a properly violent revolution sometimes has. DiCaprio elevates the film to new heights in his performance, reminding everyone watching that he can play more than a sleazy businessman. “One Battle” takes risks in its storytelling, shoving 30 minutes of important context at the front of an over two-hour movie. Although those 30 minutes felt a little slow, that context was especially important for the rest of the plot to work; it felt as though removing the beginning would make everything else lose meaning, so it had to be preserved. Paul Thomas Anderson’s watchful eye constructed an emotional and hilarious story that will hopefully be discussed for years to come.

Although “Sinners” is also a notable contender for Best Picture, I think it is slightly too abstract and experimental for the Academy. The lore of the vampires, while in my opinion interesting with a lot of social commentary and implications, is not well explained, which could leave moviegoers confused. As well, the film loses a lot of credibility after Grace unreasonably invites the vampires in for the epic showdown; it was a complete character destruction that only seemed to add the fight scene into the film, instead of for any other more believable reason in the world.

Thank you for reading through my predictions! If you have any disagreements about my predictions, we will find out this Sunday, March 15, how accurate I was. Did I nail it 100%? Or did I only get one pity trophy for participation by watching all the nominees this year? Find out in the next issue of The Justice — the post-Oscars review.