The first few weeks of the college football season have shown how even the playing field has become. We have seen historically powerful programs like the University of Notre Dame and Clemson University finding themselves with losing records. Meanwhile, more obscure football schools like the University of North Texas and the United States Naval Academy are in the conversation to be among the top 25 teams nationally. The athletes themselves are also more evenly matched; there aren’t any runaway favorites for the John Heisman award, given to the top player in college football. In recent history, the award has been given almost exclusively to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. That trend will seemingly continue this year, although nobody has truly separated themselves from the pack through five weeks of action. Who are the true contenders for the award and what makes this year so different?

Going into the season, there was a general consensus that the University of Texas’ Arch Manning was the most likely to win the award, despite it being his first season starting as quarterback for the Longhorns. However, after an unproductive game against the Ohio State University and barely meeting expectations against weaker teams, Manning has fallen considerably in the rankings. Winning the award in the future isn’t impossible for a prospect as good as Manning, especially considering that he’s in his sophomore season, but he will have to go above and beyond following a week five bye.

The only preseason candidate that has really proven himself to be a frontrunner is University of Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Mateer transferred to OU after an impressive 2024 season with the Washington State University Cougars, and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation to start the year. He has two wins against high-quality teams in the forms of Auburn University and the University of Michigan. Unfortunately, Mateer suffered a broken hand in the game against Auburn, which required a surgery that will put Mateer on the bench indefinitely. Although a very concerning development for his Heisman hopes, his operation was apparently such a success that the Attorney General of the State of Oklahoma issued an official commendation to the surgeon who performed the surgery. There is no timeline for when Mateer will return, but it seems like it will be sooner rather than later.

In my opinion, the most convincing case belongs to Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has led the University of Indiana Hoosiers to an undefeated start, all while throwing just a single interception compared to 16 touchdowns. Mendoza’s resume also includes a 63-10 dismantling of the ninth-ranked University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Indiana entered week five as the #11 ranked team in the nation and was able to fend off Iowa in a close 20-15 win, far less gracefully than they had handled their previous games.

Louisiana State University’s Garrett Nussmeier is a candidate to be selected first overall in the 2026 National Football League Draft, and his numbers this season corroborate that prediction. The Tigers have two statement wins that are less impressive in hindsight, against Clemson University and the University of Florida, but are still generally considered to be one of the best teams in the nation, partially thanks to Nussmeier’s consistency. Nussmeier is also in the conversation for the Heisman, but will have to somehow separate himself from other Southeastern Conference standouts in the coming weeks, which he can do by continuing to guide the Tigers as they enter conference play.

The University of Miami’s Carson Beck may be the most generic choice for the Heisman, but is still a very reasonable candidate. The Hurricanes are very much in the race to be the best team in the country, and it’s historically common for the quarterback of the best team in the nation to win. Among the teams at the top of the Associated Press Top 25, Beck probably has the best shot to win between himself, Ohio State University sophomore Julian Sayin and University of Georgia redshirt junior Gunner Stockton, thanks to having the most experience of the group and a slightly better strength of schedule.

The lone non-quarterback that has produced Heisman-level numbers is the University of Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy, who has been a defining factor for a team that is usually towards the bottom of the Southeastern Conference. Hardy is an intense running back best known for his elite balance and ability to keep moving through contact. The undefeated Tigers padded their record after beating the winless University of Massachusetts Amherst Minutemen at home in a 42-6 blowout, in which Hardy singlehandedly had more yards and touchdowns than the entire UMass team combined. Mizzou faces a hot Alabama team at home next week, which gives Hardy a chance to perform against his toughest competition of the season so far.

The most remarkable candidate to emerge is the University of Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss, who joined the Rebels after transferring from Division-II Ferris State University. Originally the backup, Chambliss has started following an injury to starting quarterback Austin Simmons. In his limited action, Chambliss has catapulted himself into the Heisman conversation after incredibly efficient games against the University of Arkansas and Tulane University, in each of which he threw for over 300 yards without an interception. Even after Simmons was taken off of the injured list this week against LSU, Chambliss still started the game and was able to knock off Garrett Nussmeier and the previously undefeated Tigers for their most defining win of the season. If Chambliss continues at this pace, Ole Miss will almost certainly make the College Football Playoff.

The dark horse candidates include Georgia Institute of Technology’s Haynes King, University of Oregon’s Dante Moore and University of Alabama’s Ty Simpson, all of whom have led their ranked squads to wins against other strong teams. All of these players have been gaining traction in conversations around the Heisman Award despite their lack of press and lower expectations coming into the season. Georgia Tech eked out an overtime win this week at Wake Forest University, with King needing every single one of his 243 passing yards and three touchdowns to get their first in-conference win of the season. King will need to be more careful following his week six bye to preserve their undefeated status. Oregon willed their way against   Pennsylvania State University in a double-overtime classic on the road against #3 ranked Penn State to earn their most important win of the year so far. Moore and the Ducks have the momentum heading into their week six game against Fernando Mendoza and Indiana. Simpson and the Crimson Tide also had a defining win on the road against the fifth-ranked University of Georgia, going for three touchdowns in the first half to get back on track after a shaky start to the season. Alabama heads on the road to challenge Ahmad Hardy and the Missouri Tigers next week.

Several upsets have also made the Heisman race even more contentious. Following Florida State University’s loss in a double-overtime thriller to the University of Virginia, FSU’s Heisman hopeful quarterback Thomas Castellanos now has a rough loss to an unranked team. Clemson University quarterback Cade Klubnik is in a similar position, with the Tigers opening their year with losses to unranked Syracuse University and Georgia Tech. Klubnik and Clemson’s lone win comes in the form of only barely beating Troy University in a game Clemson had to pay Troy $1.5 Million to play. 

The reason this Heisman race feels so different is due to the lack of narrative. In previous years, there were a few players who had both the story and numbers to lay their claim on the award. The 2024 season featured several players who fit this description. The University of Colorado-Boulder’s Travis Hunter was making headlines for being one of the best cornerbacks and wide receivers in the nation at the same time. Boise State University’s running back Ashton Jeanty was putting up some of the most impressive stat lines in the country on a weekly basis. We don’t have any of that this year. The players with the most hype have all fallen short in the few games that they have played this season. University of Florida sophomore DJ Lagway was expected to be dominant, but instead has more interceptions than touchdowns for the 1-3 Gators. The aforementioned Arch Manning has shown concerning throwing mechanics and made mistakes reading defenses that have cost his team. Without any record-breaking performances, unique skill sets or true dominance to be found yet this season, the Heisman really is up for grabs this season. 

With what we’ve seen so far, I believe that the most likely narratives that will be spun surround Trinidad Chambliss and John Mateer. Chambliss is the ultimate underdog story: despite being an unranked recruit out of high school, starting his college career at a Division-II school and being benched for the first two games, he still found a way to be at the top of the sport. Career arcs like this are more common nowadays, but Chambliss has overcome more than any other candidate this season. Mateer could also be seen as overcoming an obstacle in the form of his broken hand, but he’ll have an uphill battle to face to beat out other candidates statistically after missing games. However, the season is only just ramping up, and conference play should prove who will earn the 2025-26 Heisman Award.