Prof. Eva Bellin (POL) and University of Utah Prof. Ibrahim Karawan agreed that there is reason to be optimistic that the Egyptian military will not remain the governing force in Egypt during a Feb. 15 panel discussion titled "Furor in the Arab Street: Tunisia, Egypt and Beyond."Prof. Shai Feldman (POL), the Judith and Sidney Swartz director's chair of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies moderated the event, which was hosted in Rapaporte Treasure Hall by the Crown Center for Middle East Studies.

Bellin began the discussion by speaking about the January uprising in Tunisia, known as the Jasmine Revolution, and she argued that, in addition to corruption, repression and economic difficulties of the North African and Middle Eastern nations, outrage and impunity were two major factors that combined to cause the uprising in Tunisia.

"Outrage was the trigger, the spark that set alight the underlying tinder of long-term grievances about unemployment, corruption and oppression," she said.

"Once people believed that the military would not shoot, the risk of [their] protesting declined precipitously, . and this sense of impunity decreased the sense of threat and fueled massive participation in the protests," she said.

Bellin warned, however, that "just because you have successfully demolished an authoritarian regime doesn't mean that a democratic regime will necessarily take its place," and that the more common historical scenario "is for one authoritarian regime to be replaced by another authoritarian regime."

She said, "I am not optimistic overall that the Jasmine Revolution will spark democratic contagion throughout the region. . I hope, I really hope my analysis and the conclusions I draw from this are absolutely wrong."

Karawan spoke about the Egyptian case and agreed with Bellin on the importance of the military's role in a successful uprising.

"It's a conscription army, and from the beginning it was clear that they would not shoot at their own people," Karawan said.

He noted that the military would likely hand over power as long as the privileges of the army, such as officer insulation against hardships, were to remain in place.

He added that the Muslim Brotherhood is a "relevant force, but not decisive" and that he, like Bellin, is also not optimistic that other repressive regimes will fall to protests in the region.

David Makovsky, the director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Project on the Middle East Peace Process, also participated in the panel discussion and spoke about United States President Barack Obama's response to the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.

Makovsky said that Obama "did not seek out this crisis" and that he sees himself both as a pragmatist and a bridge to the Arab and Muslim world.

Makovsky said that it is still uncertain how hard the United States will push the Egyptian military to transition and that the uprising in Egypt might give the administration more leverage in pushing reform in other countries, such as Iran.