All the Red Sox had career years last season. David Ortiz will never hit 31 home runs or knock in over 100 runs again. Bill Mueller will not come close to hitting .326 again. Kevin Millar will never again have 96 RBIs in a single season. While some or even all of these claims may be true there is still good reason to believe that the 2004 Red Sox offense will be just as potent as last season. Although many of the newcomers to the Red Sox lineup had career years, there were other players who had anything but career years.
Take Johnny Damon. Damon was virtually a non factor in the first half of the season, and only in the second half did his average improve to a respectable mark. His on-base percentage remained low throughout the season.
Nomar Garciaparra disappeared in the last seven weeks of the season, with his average hovering around the dismal .200 mark. His struggles at the plate continued into the post-season where he failed to deliver the clutch hit when Boston needed it most.
Manny Ramirez had a decent season, but did not come close to hitting 40 home runs and barely knocked in over 100 runs. In what was one of his rare injury-free seasons, Manny did not put up the kind of numbers that the Red Sox were hoping for when they signed him to the $160 million contract in 2001.
There is also no reason why those Sox players who did have career years cannot duplicate them. Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon both had arguably the most productive offensive seasons of their careers in 2003. However, with both players in the prime of their careers and with their numbers improving over the past few years, there is no reason to believe that they cannot duplicate those kind of numbers in 2004.
As for Ortiz and Millar, the fact that they played half of their games in Fenway Park was a huge factor in their offensive surges. Ortiz found that the friendly Green Monster made it easier for him to go the opposite field. In what in most parks would be fly outs, many of Ortiz's drives knocked off the Green Monster for doubles or some even found their way to the coveted Green Monster seats.
Millar, who bats from the right side of the plate, is a very different kind of hitter than Ortiz, as he tends to pull nearly every pitch he sees. Millar used the Monster to pull balls to left that would also be outs in many other ball parks, but because of the short left field and the Green Monster, they ended up being singles, doubles or even home runs. Millar also had a second half where his numbers dropped precipitously from the first half. Although he ended up with impressive numbers, Millar could certainly show improvements in 2004.
The typical criticism of the Red Sox these days is that their pitching rotation is very strong, maybe the strongest in all of baseball, but their lineup cannot match the Yankees. Last month I went on about how A-Rod going to the Yankees is not going to shift the balance of power in the American League East, and I still hold to that belief. The Yankee lineup is very strong, filled with proven veterans, but the Red Sox lineup is too. Both teams had tremendous seasons in 2003, and they both improved over the off season.
The only thing that concerns much of Red Sox nation, is that there are a couple of nagging injuries that are bothering some of the Red Sox starters. Trot Nixon has struggled with a back injury throughout spring training and isn't expected back until May. Nomar has had a torn achilles tendon which has limited him to eight at bats during the entire spring training. The chances of him playing this Sunday night in Baltimore are rather slim. However utility players such as Dave McCarty and Brian Daubach have had very productive spring trainings and the Red Sox have a deep bench with players such as Gabe Kapler and Ellis Burks so there should not be that great of a production drop off.
Last year, the Red Sox needed bullpen help badly, and general manager Theo Epstein went out and got it. There's no reason to believe anything different this year if the Red Sox arein need of offensive help. With a 1-2-3 of Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe, and a lineup with the names of Garciaparra, Ramirez, Damon, Ortiz and Nixon, there is no need to worry in Beantown.