There's nothing like an election year to get the juices of prognostication flowing, and I might as well consider first the question weighing most heavily on our inquisitive minds. Paris Hilton will not be honored with the award for Best Actress, despite the fact that her cinematic effort was far more convincing than Nicole Kidman's lead as a Confederate belle in "Cold Mountain." OK, that's enough with the allure of hotel heiresses.2003 certainly promulgated numerous issues that will be settled this year: the war in Iraq, the war of words over the war, the president's May 1 victory dance, the continued war after the war "ended," and the war of words over the war after the war. And in the succinct, yet appropriate words of Iraq Administrator Paul Bremer, "We got him." So, with Iraq occupied but by no means organized, and Saddam drinking truth serum milkshakes, what to make of these various situations?

President Bush's third State of the Union address looms tonight, with his most absurd policy initiative to date announced last week. His space program, including the moon base and extraterrestrial missions, is not only unnecessarily lofty; it is one murderous computer short of a space odyssey. But who knows, maybe the weapons of mass destruction are out there.

The address itself is said to be compassionate and optimistic, but new proposals such as the marriage program and the guest worker program appear to be thinly- veiled campaign fodder. Another keynote feature of tonight's speech might be a request to make permanent Bush's tax cuts, despite the ever-burgeoning deficit. But that is, of course, more re-election material.

The election grows more cutthroat with each passing moment. Iowa caucuses were held yesterday and the New Hampshire primary is next Tuesday. Despite his lackluster performance in Iowa yesterday, I still think Howard Dean can pull it off in the Democratic primary. Regardless, it seems increasingly suspect that whoever is ultimately victorious will have the support of the runners up. But if the general election does become a referendum built on anger and hatred toward the president, I am optimistic about a Democratic victory in November.

Overseas, the situation in Iraq fails to yield realistic peace, no matter how many assault rifles, grenade launchers and holdout Ba'athists American troops capture. The number of American deaths under hostile circumstances since last March just eclipsed 500, and it seems unlikely the casualty rate will drop any time soon. Donald Rumsfeld is increasingly vocal about troop reductions, but a reduction in forces in Iraq appears to foretell more unfortunate results unless a miraculous act of self-governance occurs on the Arabian Peninsula. Ultimately, the United States will be faced with the choice of continued stewardship or reckless abandonment in Iraq. While Bush may win more votes with the latter, that choice will also create a power vacuum with unpredictable results.

Predictions for this year shouldn't all be pessimism about elections and foreign policy. There are many arenas with myriad events to consider.

No less than three celebrity trials will open in 2004, with charges ranging from securities fraud to sexual assault. Martha Stewart is on trial for insider trading, but it is very plausible she will not be convicted. Her stock in question was valued around $40,000, while her personal fortune remains close to $1 billion, and her celebrity, however notorious, might not be a heavy burden. Besides, Martha would be devastated at the concept of decorating a cinder block room with bars on the window.

It is also probable that, when he goes to trial in Colorado, Kobe Bryant will be acquitted. While the charges against Bryant are serious, the key witness' account of her interaction with the Lakers' all-star guard remains dubious considering her state at the time of the incident. Bryant candidly, and tearfully, admitted to his marital infidelity. Unfortunately for the rest of the NBA, Kobe will probably be found not guilty.

Most recently, the King of Pop learned that he is actually subject to the laws of civilized society. The charges against Michael Jackson are the most grave facing any celebrity on trial this year, and the legal proceedings in this case have been nothing short of surreal. Jackson's less-than-human physiognomy is startling during his rare interviews, and his arraignment last week was more like a publicity tour. If the trial actually comes to pass this year, it will be a theater of the bizarre. Jacko envelopes himself in more trouble each time he speaks in self-defense, and the charges against him appear very concrete, so don't be surprised if Neverland goes dark and Jackson finds himself doing the moonwalk in leg-irons.

I really should lighten this up. Tom Brady will lead the Patriots to victory in the Super Bowl, although it would have been far more entertaining to see Donovan McNabb take the Eagles to the championship with Rush Limbaugh crying of a liberal conspiracy. Since we're on sports, I might as well confirm that this year, like the previous 85, is not the year for the Red Sox. Once again, Boston will eventually find itself eating pinstriped dust in the Bronx.

So, in brief, the Democratic primary will be contentious to the end, Karl Rove will do everything in his ability to win in November, Iraq will continue to be tempestuous and the celebrity trials will ensnare the voyeuristic. But the general election, as much as pundits will attempt to call it a cakewalk, remains the most unpredictable item on this year's agenda. The battle lines are clear as ever, but the result of the impending brawl between Bush and the opposition is cloudy. All the world's a circus in 2004.