OP-ED: Polls and poverty tours take the lead
Brandeis students often wonder how anyone could watch something as boring as presidential politics. If they knew that Barack Obama's new campaign slogan was "It's time for a different B.O. in the White House!" they wouldn't think politics was so monotonous.Fine, I admit it-this isn't his new campaign slogan. Even in jokes thrown around by late-night comedians, however, one can learn a great deal about presidential candidates and campaigns.
"John Edwards is on the campaign trail. He's now doing something called his 'Poverty Tour' where he's visiting people who have no money and no hope. In fact, his first stop today: John McCain's headquarters," Jay Leno astutely stated last July.
Believe it or not, you can learn about politics even before 11 p.m. rolls around and Jay Leno, David Letterman and Jon Stewart are telling you the news with their own bias. You can turn on your television and cycle through channels until you find a candidate speaking on one of the major networks, and by listening to just a few sentences, you're going to realize something interesting. The candidate you are watching is repeating the same words over and over, and he is doing it for a reason. Admittedly, it's confusing at first. Why does this candidate say the word "change" in every sentence? Why have I heard the word "leadership" four times in the last 30 seconds?
When running a political campaign, candidates strive to make themselves stand out above the rest in the field. Candidates are predictable in how they accomplish this task: They pick one single topic and declare that on this most important of American values, they are the "experts." Clinton is the "experienced one," Obama is the "one who will bring change," McCain is the "straight-talker," Romney is the "outsider," Giuliani is the "leader" and Edwards "fights for the working and the impoverished." Just by listening to a candidate speak once, in practically any environment or situation, you can easily understand what their entire candidacy is based upon.
For those of you who just want to get the gist of what has happened in the last week of politics, I'll give you the scoop.
First, the polls:
There are four major Republican battlegrounds for the 2008 election-Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan. As it stands right now, Romney is maintaining his impressive lead in the first two primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire. However, a poll taken by the American Research Group put Romney ahead of Rudy Giuliani by only one percent -and gave new life to the Giuliani campaign in Iowa. The South Carolina race is perpetually locked in a four-way tie between all the first tier candidates, and recent polling data suggest that Michigan is stuck in a similar situation. No candidate has truly broken through and made major headway.
In the Democratic field, the only state that is being closely contested is Iowa. Clinton has maintained a lead of over 10 percent in every other state. It is important to recognize, however, that Iowa is the first state to hold its caucus, and therefore it has a disproportionate amount of sway in the primary process. The lead that Edwards once held in Iowa has slowly deteriorated, and now polling in Iowa constantly swings back and forth among the three Democratic candidates.
What was expected to be the most exciting news of this week, the fundraising results for every campaign for the last quarter, came with very few surprises. The three minor pieces of information: Republican candidate Fred Thompson only garnered $9 million in support, a paltry number compared to the $20.5 million that Romney reported in his first quarter. Clinton edged over Obama, beating him for the first time in both primary and general election funding. Clinton's primary campaign overall has been out fundraised by the Obama campaign, $75 million to $62 million.
The next time someone accuses you of being a college student who is trapped in your own little community and oblivious to the outside world, ask him if he thinks that Romney's lead in early primary states will grow due to his aggressive television advertising or if the recent American Research Group poll performed in late September was just a fluke. That'll show him.
The writer is a member of the Class of 2009.
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