Former Vermont governor Howard Dean gathered the most votes during the mock online election for MoveOn.org, a Web site which houses information on all the Democrat presidential hopefuls competing in the 2004 election, and this will help the Democratic party retake the White House, according to MoveOn.org treasurer Wes Boyd.MoveOn.org provides a way for registered Democrats to support their party leaders through grassroots efforts and donations. On June 24 and 25, MoveOn.org held an online election in which people who registered on this site had the chance to vote for one of the nine contenders. Precisely 317,647 members voted for one of the nine contenders, or voted undecided or other.

Boyd said he was satisfied with the turnout and the results. "Our most important objectives have been met: early Democratic grassroots involvement; increased contributions and volunteer support for each campaign and mobilization of the Democratic base to defeat George Bush. We wanted people to have a seat at the table and they have taken it."



Will Dean win?

Even though Dean earned approximately 44 percent of the votes after the polls closed at 11:59 p.m. on June 25, many say they have mixed emotions as to whether the results of MoveOn.org are an accurate reflection of the way people will vote in the first Democratic primaries in February, and in the national elections as well.

"I think it makes sense that Dean won the MoveOn.org election because of the way it was conducted," said Emily Evans '04, a registered member of MoveOn.org. "Dean's campaign grew so rapidly this summer because of the internet."

But as to whether Evans feels Dean will eventually become the Democratic candidate for President, she said, "It's probably going to be between Dean and (Senator John) Kerry (D-Mass.). Dean has to find a way to reach the voters who aren't online in order to win the democratic nomination next spring."

Professor Steven Teles (POL) said, however, he feels that due to the nature of campaigns, it is impossible to predict whether the results from the June mock-election will reflect that of the first round of the Democratic primaries. He said he believes these results will not have much effect in the elections to come. "I doubt (the results) will have much effect whatsoever. Dean's lead in the MoveOn.org poll was laughed off by most of the Pundits because (Rep. Dennis) Kucinich (D-Ohio) came in second."

"Also, campaigns are long, unpredictable things," Teles added. "The MoveOn Poll results mainly reflected the fact that Dean was well organized on the Web, and has a lot of support on the left. These don't necessarily translate into victory on election day."

Unlike Teles, Laura Goldin '05, co-president of the Brandeis College Democrats Club said the results "quite possibly will reflect those of the actual first Democratic primary."

"It is possible to assume that MoveOn.org's results may mirror that of the actual Democratic primary," Goldin said. "Dean's popularity is soaring and he is seen by many as one who can reinvigorate the Democratic party. If his public image continues to garner attention and support from the media, then Dean will have a good chance of winning the Democratic primary."

Tobias Harris '05, editor of Concord Bridge magazine, a self-titled conservative-libertarian publication on campus, agrees that the results may predict the real results of the Democratic primary, given that "it is not too surprising that Howard Dean, darling of the Internet savvy anti-war left, won an Internet primary."



MoveOn.org remains impartial

According to the Web site MoveOn.org, it said that if one of the nine contenders received more than 50 percent of the votes in the online election, the Web site would agree to endorse that candidate. But the results, with the top three winners being Dean with approximately 44 percent, Kucinich with about 24 percent, followed by Kerry with about 24 percent, gave no majority.

But Goldin doubts the logic of the policy. "Considering that there are nine Democratic Presidential candidates, it was unrealistic to assume that any one candidate would receive a majority," she said.

Whether feasible or not, Evans regrets the lack of a single landslide victory. "It's too bad that no one got a large enough majority, because the support of MoveOn.org would have been a huge boost to the winner's campaign," she said.

Moreover, the diffusion of democratic support over nine candidates jeopardizes the Democrats chances to unseat the president, according to Evans. "The biggest problem facing the Democrats in the upcoming election is the fact that there are so many of them that it's hard for one or two candidates to obtain a large following," she said. "It's splitting the party, making them look weak. MoveOn.org wants to unite the party so that they can beat Bush in 2004 and I agree that unity is the most important thing."

Teles said he believes the promise of endorsing a candidate was only a way to get people to vote. "If there wasn't the possibility that there would be money at the end of the line, most campaigns wouldn't have paid attention," he said.



A little less apathetic perhaps?

Although this grassroots effort is meant to excite and mobilize voters for the upcoming election, Goldin said she fears only the politically active Americans registered who participated in the online experiment. "Since political apathy is a substantial problem in this country, any legitimate campaign which seeks to excite interest in American politics is a positive influence," she said. "However, it can be assumed that mainly politically active people participated in the MoveOn.org survey due to interest and knowledge of the survey's existence. Those who have no interest in politics are unlikely to search the Web and partake in the mock Democratic primary."

But Evans says she is confident that Dean's efforts of reaching Web browsers can eliminate the political apathy of the average American voter. "It's our generation that is most known for it's indifference towards politics and through the Internet; MoveOn.org and Howard Dean have managed to reach a lot of young people who might have remained apathetic," Evans said.

"To reach the indifferent voters, a candidate has to stir up strong emotions," Evans added. "Politicians have to start making strong decisions instead of playing it safe if they want the average Americans to care. Such decisions maybe anger some and excite others, but as long as they get people involved, they are a good thing. This is what Howard Dean is doing."



Who is the winner?

Dean may have come out on top in the practice run, but some are still skeptical of how successful he will be in the real election. "There is a non-negligible chance that Dean will win both New Hampshire and Iowa," Teles predicts. "That will leave him plus whoever has enough money in the bank to survive losing the first two primaries, and who can compete in South Carolina and Arizona. You would think the latter two states should be good for (Sen. Joseph) Lieberman (D-Conn.) and (Sen. John) Edwards (D-North Carolina), but both seem to have had problems getting traction. So, I think there's a lot of campaign left to fight, and things always look different in February than they did in August."

Goldin said she is more certain of Dean's victory. "Currently, Howard Dean is very hot. The media loves him and he is being labeled as the new 'it' politician whose vigor may be able to revitalize the Democratic Party," she said. "In my opinion, as long as his positive momentum continues in the direction it has been going, Dean has an extremely good shot at winning the Democratic presidential primary."

Despite her confidence, Godlin feels Kerry's national political experience makes him more qualified. "Unfortunately, Kerry is well known in the Northeast but not in other areas of the country," she said. "His lack in national popularity may hurt his chances of winning the primary."

Evans said she predicts either Dean or Kerry will take the seat in the primary, but still feels it is a little too early in the campaign process to tell. "Dean has a good shot, provided he hasn't peaked too early. I think what people like about Dean, at least what I like about him, is that he's different. He's not afraid to say what's on his mind. He's more conservative on some issues, like gun control, that I wish he weren't, but at the end of the day, the kind of person that he represents is himself to me is someone that I can get behind 100 percent," she said. "If it's not Dean, then it will be Kerry."

Despite the outcome, Harris said he fears, "the Democratic campaign will be particularly venomous, as the party's base is steeped in hated of President Bush. With party activists working up into an anti-Bush frenzy, the upcoming campaign promises to make the Clinton impeachment proceedings look like a bipartisan tea party.