Ariel Sharon appears to be having some difficulty piecing together a parliamentary majority in order to create a new government, after the 16th election to the Knesset, Israel's parliament. By all accounts, however, it should be a relatively simple thing to do. Sharon's Likud party now controls 38 of 120 seats in the new Knesset, the most seats any one party has won since Labor gained 44 in 1992, and Likud's ideological allies have won an additional 29 seats. But, Sharon has refused to build the kind of coalition the combination of his party and parties further to the right would create, a coalition providing no room in which he would be able to maneuver politically.

Sharon has instead set out to convince former-coalition partner Labor, Israel's other major party, to join the Likud in any new government. Sharon would like to bring Labor's left-center stance into the coalition both to shield his anti-Palestinian measures from criticism and to provide support in any negotiations with Yasser Arafat or others in the Palestinian Authority. Sharon would also like to bring the religious parties' 22 seats in to maintain Likud's historic relationship with them and provide a buffer from criticism aimed at him from the right.

The coalition that is formed in the end, however, may not please Sharon. Shinui, the third-largest party, with 15 seats, is virulently secular and has previously refused to serve in a government with religious parties. Shinui has called for the formation of a "secular" unity government, which would include Likud, Labor and Yisrael Ba'aliya. Such a coalition would be under no pressure to placate the religious parties and would be able to separate religion and state in Israel, relax religious-based legislation and decrease aid to religious institutions, as many "secular" Israelis -- the vast majority of the Jewish population -- have demanded.

Such a coalition is unlikely to come to fruition, however, since it would mean collective suicide for Likud to alienate its Orthodox supporters, and because Labor leader Amram Mitzna refuses to join any coalition the majority party seeks to create. Shinui, apparently hungry for a place in the coalition and control of important ministries, has relaxed its demands, now saying it will serve with at least one religious party, if that party makes certain concessions.

Tomorrow, Israeli President Moshe Katsav will reappoint Ariel Sharon as Israel's prime minister. It will become clear thereafter the direction Sharon will take to secure a solid majority. He will not establish a right-wing government, because he will be unable to negotiate with any Palestinian representative, and would be at risk of losing the support of the United States. Sharon may be able to pull Shinui and United Torah Judaism, an Ultra-Orthodox party, together in a right-center coalition, but it is unlikely that such a mixture of oil and water would ever produce a maintainable government.

Sharon's only chance to hold a government together until 2007, the next time national elections are scheduled, is to bring Labor and Shinui together, and keep the religious parties out of the coalition. Any other government will give Mitzna exactly what he wants -- new elections soon. And, if Sharon offered Labor the chance to join such a "secular" government, Mitzna would be unable to resist the pressures within his own party to accept. But, if Sharon is unable to lasso Labor, he knows he can rest assured that he will be reelected in a new election.