Evaluating Epstein
In this era of corrupt owners, spoiled players and ignorant fans, a new sheriff has arrived in Boston to shake things up. The noble-hearted renegade is a 28-year-old wunderkind by the name of Theo Epstein. Epstein recently assumed the role of Red Sox General Manager after the team, owned by billionaire John Henry, failed to sign the two men widely regarded as the best General Managers in the game, the Oakland Athletics' Billy Beane and the Blue Jays' J.P. Ricciardi (a man who is as hard to pinpoint as his last name is to spell). Although one might not know it from the media's reaction, Theo is likely to bring an era of success to Boston not seen since the days when the Sox were owned by an alcoholic Broadway producer. Back then, the team's stars were Tris Speaker, Dutch Leonard and Babe Ruth.
The media have taken two separate approaches to Epstein's new role. One has been to chronicle the story of the young Jewish boy who "made good," rising from Yale with his degree in American Studies, which his family called a "jock major."
To be honest, the stories make for good reading, tugging at one's heartstrings.
Journalists need to keep bread on the table and Pulitzers on the mantle, so stories like this find hungry publications; such an angle is insignificant when you recognize that the Sox are a team with a payroll well above 100 million dollars that was purchased by John Henry for 800 million dollars. This is a business decision and needs to be evaluated as such.
The second angle the media have taken in covering Epstein has been to criticize him for being lackadaisical in his pursuit of this winter's hottest free agents. When Cuban defector Jose Contreras signed with the New York Yankees, media types from Hartford to the Back Bay railed against him.
There have been countless jokes made regarding what may be the signing of the off-season, his acquisition of Jeremy Giambi, the younger, sloth-like brother of Yankees star Jason. Of course, this only furthers the point that the vast majority of baseball writers are so ignorant that they confuse an epic bargain with a titanic mistake.
Jeremy Giambi has never been given the chance to break out as a bona-fide star. He toiled in obscurity in Kansas City, where a plate of the famed KC barbeque could outplay the current Royals squad. In Oakland, Jeremy played in the shadow of his older brother and the Father, Son and Holy Ghost of pitchers, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.
Over the past two years, Giambi has developed into one of the best offensive players in the game. In 2001, he sported a stellar .391 On-Base Percentage, which was in the top ten in the AL. In 2002, despite coming to the plate less than 400 times for the A's and the Phillies, Giambi walked 79 times and hit 20 homers.
His On Base Percentage was in the top 10 in all of baseball despite playing in two pitcher's parks and his Slugging Percentage was well above the league average. In fact, Giambi put up numbers that were better than that of Cliff Floyd, the man Red Sox Nation wanted to see re-signed to a multi-year deal. Floyd is 30 and incredibly injury-prone.
Giambi is 28 and durable. In fact, Jeremy's brother Jason did not have a season like Jeremy's 2002 until he was 29, which means Jeremy is a year ahead of the curve. What Epstein might have stumbled upon is the bargain of a lifetime: All-Star production for less than three million dollars. That Epstein has been ridiculed for spending his money carefully only goes to show that most baseball writers would be better suited reading poetry on a street corner for spare change.
Additional evidence of Theo's genius is his handling of the Rule 5 draft. Rule 5 is a draft where unprotected players can be snagged from other teams, provided they stay on the roster of the drafting team for the entire season.
Very few GM's are able to capitalize on the potential of this draft, while the few that can are able to improve their own team very cheaply while taking away from the resources of others. Epstein likely made out better than any team other than Oakland and Toronto. Epstein selected former Pirates outfielder Adrian Brown, a player who provides speed at a discounted price the way McDonald's provides a cheap source of artery-stopping fat.
Epstein also picked up catcher Chris Coste, who tore up AAA Buffalo last season and will likely be one of the best backup catchers in the game. Coste is so good that the Sox could trade current starter Jason Varitek and trim 3 million dollars in payroll, while acquiring a decent prospect. Epstein also picked up a pair of relievers in Javier Lopez (who has been the source of media jokes because he is not Braves catcher Javy Lopez) and Matt White. Lopez could well become an elite left-handed reliever as he racks up K's with pinpoint control.
White has some serious power that could translate into major league success. All told, Epstein picked up a trio of players who have tremendous upside for less than $1.5 million. Former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette was known for doing things like paying Dante Bichette $6 million to sit on the bench and get fat. By spending less on quality bench players, Epstein leaves budget money open for a big midseason acquisition, or a free agent signing prior to the start of the season.
Epstein buys into the principles of Sabermetrics popularized by author Bill James. It involves the use of terms like "plate discipline" and "freely available talent." For this reason, major followers of Sabermetrics are often ridiculed in the media, labeled stat freaks and geeks.
But, the results of actual intelligence, as opposed to conventional old boy logic, are undeniable. Billy Beane, another Sabermetrics proponent, has been able to build a successful team with almost no money behind him. J.P. Ricciardi is making the Blue Jays a competitive team, despite the fact that the Canadian dollar is worthless. Padres GM Kevin Towers has a young team that will likely be able to lick the Diamondbacks very soon, and for tens of millions less. In the end, intelligence and forward thinking will always win when they face off against conventional logic in a battle royale. Those who are ridiculed are often the ones who hold the key to success.
Andy Dufrense, the protagonist of The Shawshank Redemption, remarked, "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." So, Boston fans, hold your heads up high, for with the hiring of Theo Epstein you have acquired that most precious of things, hope. It is a hope that change will come, that you will finally be able to break through the wall of dominance of your rivals. So give some thanks to John Henry and Theo Epstein, and more importantly, to the men who inspired them.
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